Abstract
A numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada’s western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored. Fifty historical storm surge events that were captured on a tide gauge near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, were simulated using a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) hydrodynamic model accounting for the influence of sea ice on air-sea momentum transfer. The extent of sea ice and the duration of the ice season has been reducing in the Arctic region, which may contribute to increasing risk from storm surge-driven hazards. Comparisons between winter storm events under present-day ice concentrations and future open-water scenarios revealed that the decline in ice cover has potential to result in storm surges that are up to three times higher. The numerical model was also used to hindcast a significant surge event that was not recorded by the tide gauge, but for which driftwood lines along the coast provided insights to the high-water marks. Compared to measurements at proximate meteorological stations, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided reasonable estimates of atmospheric pressure but did not accurately capture peak wind speeds during storm surge events. By adjusting the wind drag coefficients to compensate, reasonably accurate predictions of storm surges were attained for most of the simulated events. The extreme value probability distributions (i.e., return periods and values) of the storm surges were significantly altered when events absent from the tide gauge record were included in the frequency analysis, demonstrating the value of non-conventional data sources, such as driftwood line surveys, in supporting coastal hazard assessments in remote regions.
Highlights
Extreme weather events along Canada’s Arctic seaboard can generate storm surges, defined as changes in water levels associated with atmospheric pressure and wind effects, which have led to flooding of coastal communities
The ERA5 dataset demonstrated a high level of skill in reproducing observed surface pressures, with mean errors within 1% of the pressure minima during fifty historical storm surge events
A numerical investigation of storm surges in the Beaufort Sea was conducted
Summary
Extreme weather events along Canada’s Arctic seaboard can generate storm surges, defined as changes in water levels associated with atmospheric pressure and wind effects, which have led to flooding of coastal communities. Other projected climate change effects in the Beaufort Sea include relative sea-level rise, thawing permafrost, increasingly extreme wave climate, and accelerating coastal erosion [4], which will compound declining sea ice cover and exacerbate the existing hazards and vulnerabilities associated with extreme storm surges. The effects of relative sea-level rise on coastal hazards are intensified by the increasing permafrost temperatures [6], which can contribute to erosion and coastline retreat [7] These climate change impacts are expected to increase the exposure of coastal communities and maritime infrastructure to storm surge hazards, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities, and causing a pressing need to study and understand the development of storm surges in the Arctic [6]
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