Abstract
Nuclear weapons' defenders claim that they lower the risk of war, at the price of devastation if war breaks out. Sooner or later, however, on a realist analysis, catastrophic nuclear war is sure to come. Nuclear deterrence thus buys us a better chance of dying in bed, while each post-holocaust generation will have to pick up the pieces. If the nuclear optimists are wrong, hoping to spread or perpetuate nuclear deterrence is foolish; but if they are right, it is exploitative. Like big cars and cheap flights, nuclear deterrence benefits us at the expense of future generations. States that do not already have the bomb should not get it. Britain and France should consider disarmament, while Russia and the United States should slash their arsenals. Minimum deterrence should be equally stable, but most nuclear optimists, being neorealists who hold that war will continue, should want deep cuts even if it is not.
Highlights
If this is a Faustian bargain, it is an odd one
Waltz argues that if nuclear war breaks out, no state is likely to escalate it to apocalyptic levels, and that if weak states acquire and use nuclear weapons, “the world will not end.”[47]. He is probably right—about the first nuclear war
Intergenerational justice deals with our obligations to past or future generations, those with which our own lives do not overlap.[55]
Summary
If the nuclear optimists are right, these weapons make the risk of war very small. Just as the belief that all states benefit from the international status quo muddles analysis,[9] so too does the assumption that all generations gain or lose from nuclear deterrence. If nuclear weapons do not make war less likely, seeking to spread or perpetuate them is foolish Because the bomb is an absolute weapon, they need no longer keep up with the Joneses (or Ivanovs), and in any case nuclear weapons cost less than soldiers This spares leaders the task of whipping up support for high military spending, and makes nuclear states less prone to hypernationalism.[14] On such grounds some optimists advocate limited proliferation.[15]
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