Nuclear stability in a world with overhead transparency

Abstract

The increasing number of Earth observation satellites are introducing a revolution in overhead transparency and making ground activity more visible than ever before. In the near future, swarms of satellites will provide imagery which is persistent, high-resolution, delivered in real-time and widely accessible. This data will be instantly and autonomously analyzed by artificial intelligence, and insights provided to users. In the global security environment defined by rising great power competition, increased transparency could have a significant impact on nuclear stability by breaking the secrecy nuclear weapon states rely on. This could stimulate a dangerous nuclear arms race. If political conditions align and states make that choice, new technological capabilities could also help create an environment of trust and predictability and facilitate the next generation of arms control.