Nuclear power planning with reference to developing countries

Abstract

The selection of a capacity expansion plan (Installation policy) in a grid system with particular reference to the technical and economic conditions in developing countries is considered . A model is proposed to take into account the relative availability of different fuel types when selecting a plant type. Discounted average supply probability, estimated at least in relative terms., is defined and used together with an adequate penalty weighting, that reflects the consequences of a loss of plant, to estimate the expected return. Additional weighting to reflect the limitation on the capital available is also proposed.A dynamic programming algorithm is used to select an optimal plant size. The trade-offs between the opportunity cost of money, the economy-of-scale constant and the growth rate are readily found using an approximate relation. Installation policies with small size plants are shown to be advantageous when the electricity demand is uncertain.