Nuclear Policies in Developing Countries

Abstract

D EVELOPING country governments embarking upon nuclear power programmes invariably argue that they are motivated principally by economic growth and energy security considerations. Rarely do leaders openly avow nuclear weapons ambitions, though there are exceptions, such as Sukarno and Saddam Hussein. Since 1974, however, the 'peaceful' nature of many Third World nuclear programmes has become suspected for three interrelated reasons. First, the Indian peaceful nuclear explosion highlighted the possibility that assistance provided by the industrialised nations can be diverted for production of a nuclear explosive. Second, growing technological capabilities brought the nuclear weapons option closer to many developing countries. Contracts between European vendors and Brazil, Pakistan, and South Korea for the supply of reprocessing plants, capable of producing weapons grade plutonium, amplified this concern. Third, doubts also arose concerning the ability of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system to slow or arrest the spread of nuclear weapons. The lack of confidence in the NPT system shown by the Israeli bombing of an IAEAsafeguarded facility in an NPT member state, Iraq, merely expressed more violently a concern which is shared in many quarters. Growing suspicion has led nuclear supplier governments, especially in North America, to restrict certain nuclear exports. Especially during the Carter administration, disagreement among the suppliers, as well as between suppliers and recipients, undermined the good will which is essential to the success of non-proliferation efforts. In examining the ambiguity of Third World intentions, this article begins by distinguishing between major approaches to nuclear power development, which call for different supplier policies. Four possible driving forces-security objectives, economic objectives, domestic politics, and foreign influences-are analysed in hopes of reaching a conclusion on how best to proceed. Developing country governments may be grouped into three categories: (1) those that have not yet introduced nuclear power to their countries; (2) those that pursue nuclear power programmes with high priority on developing self-