Nuclear infrastructure, strategic hedging, and the implications for disarmament

Abstract

In the 2001 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the George W. Bush administration put a special emphasis on the need for substantive investments in the nuclear weapons infrastructure of the USA. Understood as a complex of national laboratories, production plants, and an expert workforce, this infrastructure was portrayed as a key supportive component of the country’s strategic arsenal, but also as a component that had severely deteriorated since the end of the Cold War. The perceived urgency to improve US capabilities in this area led to the prominent position of “revitalized defense infrastructure” as one of the three legs of the “New Triad” concept, along with offensive strike systems and strategic defenses (US Department of Defense 2001). Although the rhetoric employed by the following administration of Barack Obama in relation to nuclear issues could have been initially seen as a radical break with the past decade, a number of its policies in this area soon showed a remarkable pattern of continuity with the previous years. In relation to nuclear infrastructure in particular, many analysts were caught by surprise by the extent of the multi-billion dollar investments allocated by the new administration to upgrade major nuclear weapons plants and laboratories.1 Interestingly, Obama’s own NPR in 2010 defended these investments not only on the grounds of near-to mediumterm plans, but also as one of the prerequisites for a long-term agenda to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons. The document notes that one of the goals of the new US nuclear posture should be to:. . . improve nuclear physical infrastructure and human capital to position the USA to safely reduce nuclear weapons, and if international conditions allow, eliminate them altogether. In a world where nuclear weapons had been eliminated but nuclear knowledge remains, having a strong infrastructure and base of human capital would be essential to deterring cheating or breakout, or, if deterrence failed, responding in a timely fashion.