Nuclear energy forecasts and the international safeguards system

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the increasing use of nuclear energy on the international safeguards system, and it identifies and assesses options for coping with the anticipated impact. A review of nuclear energy forecasts indicates a need for substantial increases in the financial and personnel resources of the safeguards system over the next decade. The requisite financial increases are probably within the limits of political feasibility, but the personnel needs may become problematic. There is also likely to be a continuing decline in confidence in the effectiveness of the system because of perceptions of inadequate resources and methods. There are several options that could reduce the projected technical and political pressures on the system: a postponement of plutonium recycle; improved materials measurement accuracies; immediate increases in the IAEA inspections staff. There are also options that would supplement the safeguards system and alleviate the pressures on it: multinational fuel cycle centers; a suppliers' cartel-like arrangement; and an International Nuclear Materials Custodial Authority.