Nuclear energy: current situation and prospects to 2020

Abstract

For close to half a century nuclear fission has been providing reliable supplies of electricity to the UK, with virtually no emissions of carbon dioxide. Over that period, the UK nuclear industry has avoided the emission of over one and a half billion tonnes of CO2. Yet no nuclear plant has been built in the UK for over two decades even though many of the stations in our current fleet are now within a decade or so of the end of their lifetime. Without new plants being ordered soon, the UK's nuclear capacity will decline dramatically, from 23% today to 3% post-2020--just as considerations of supply security and climate change are becoming increasingly important. Elsewhere in the world, many countries such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Finland and France are building new stations. Other countries such as the USA, South Africa, and some nations that currently do not have nuclear stations (such as Indonesia and Poland) are making preparations for future nuclear stations. Globally capacity factors for nuclear plants are higher than they have ever been, averaging around 85% and with the best stations achieving well over 90%. Lifetime can be 60 years. That the economics of such stations compete well with other technologies is well founded and easily verifiable--especially in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and the pricing in of costs for CO2 emissions--both of which stand to improve the economics of nuclear energy still further. Waste volumes arising from modern plants are just a fraction of those of some earlier stations, and the technologies are in place to deal with them safely and effectively. Following recent reviews and international developments, there is growing confidence that internationally available competitive designs of nuclear plant will provide part of the solution to the UK's long-term energy needs.