Nuclear electricity for sustainable development: Egypt a case study

Abstract

Egypt is a fast growing country with 78.9 million population and annual per capita installed power 0.286 MW as of July 2008. Moderate to mature population and economic growth trends forecast population and annual per capita installed power to reach 111 millions and 0.63 MW, respectively by 2032; and 128 millions at per capita power of 1.02 MW by 2052. With these trends in consideration installed electricity generation capacity are forecasted at 70 GW by 2032 and 132 GW by 2052 as compared to the 2008 installed power of 22.6 GW. Meeting these demands is almost impossible using known limited national fossil fuel reserves. Current electricity generation policy exhausts about 65% of country’s total fossil production. Crude oil reserves are expected to deplete by 2012, while gas reserves will be overstrained starting from 2030. A major policy shift towards the use of non-fossil resources is to be adopted. In the article Egypt’s major primary energy resources are evaluated. Electricity generation plans till 2022 are presented and an electricity generation strategy based on gradual introduction of nuclear power starting from 2018 is outlined. A balanced generation mix based on 72.7% fossil, 13% nuclear and 14.3% renewables is targeted by 2052. The mix is supposed to meet Egypt’s electricity needs by 2052 and to improve country’s energy sustainability.