Nuclear Data Uncertainty Quantification: Past, Present and Future

Abstract

An historical overview is provided of the mathematical foundations of uncertainty quantification and the roles played in the more recent past by nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear data evaluations and nuclear applications. Significant advances that have established the mathematical framework for contemporary nuclear data evaluation methods, as well as the use of uncertainty information in nuclear data evaluation and nuclear applications, are described. This is followed by a brief examination of the current status concerning nuclear data evaluation methodology, covariance data generation, and the application of evaluated nuclear data uncertainties in contemporary nuclear technology. A few possible areas for future investigation of this subject are also suggested.