Nuclear cascades or more of the same? Why meliorists may have gotten it right: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)

Abstract

AbstractTetlock et al.'s balanced contribution to the debate over the possibility of long‐range geopolitical forecasting provides a useful roadmap at a critical time. An especially challenging geopolitical juncture compels heightened attention to systematic efforts of this sort that both identify limits on expert judgment and offer ways to overcome them. The task may be extremely difficult‐‐skeptics abound‐‐but is nevertheless vital for a social science true to the mission of enhancing peace and security.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.