Nuclear Arms Race in Asia: Challenges and Containment

Abstract

This chapter considers the prospects and risks associated with a nuclear arms race in Asia. North Korea has repeatedly tested nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles under the regime of Kim Jong-un and claimed to have developed an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the continental United States. On-again, off-again negotiations between the Trump administration and the Kim Jong-un regime produced promissory notes of North Korean willingness to disarm at least part of its arsenal—maybe. In return, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) (DPRK) expected the United States and others to lift economic sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for past nuclear and missile tests defying UN restrictions. It was difficult to imagine any set of incentives that would cause North Korea to commit to US-demanded comprehensive and verifiable dismantlement of its entire nuclear program and infrastructure. Nuclear Asia also includes the Indo-Pakistan rivalry, Sino-Russian competition within a declaratory framework of mutual cooperation on strategic matters (read: we both agree that the United States is a dangerous hegemonic superpower and must be resisted, although we both remain wary of one another’s grand designs in the region) and the US Pacific presence, including nuclear-capable air and naval power and US defense commitments to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.