Abstract
Short-term forecasts of international migration are often based on data that are incomplete, biased, and reported with delays. There is also a scarcity of migration forecasts based on combined traditional and new forms of data.
Highlights
In the current century, the most significant changes seen in migration flows within Europe are credited to the 2004 and 2007 enlargements of the European Union
The proposed Google Trends indices related to employment and education, which exhaust all possible keywords and eliminate language bias, match trends observed in the migration statistics
CONTRIBUTION This work provides an example on combining Google Trends and official migration data to produce short-term forecasts, illustrated with flows from Romania to the UK
Summary
The most significant changes seen in migration flows within Europe are credited to the 2004 and 2007 enlargements of the European Union. Prior to 2009, the underlying definition used to qualify migrants was based on an intention to change residency permanently. This temporal criterion was replaced by a 12-month minimum duration of stay criterion in 2009, as required by Regulation (EC) No 862/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council (James 2014). At least prior to Brexit, Romanian citizens were not legally required to register their departure to any formal authority. This is very likely to be a significant determinant of underreporting emigration (Herm 2010; Raymer et al 2013)
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