Abstract

Identifying the changes in driving behavior that underlie the decrease in crash risk over the first few months of driving is key to efforts to reduce injury and fatality risk in novice drivers. This study represented a secondary data analysis of 1148 drivers who participated in the UK Cohort II study. The Driver Behavior Questionnaire was completed at 6 months and 1, 2 and 3 years after licensure. Linear latent growth models indicated significant increases across development in all four dimensions of aberrant driving behavior under scrutiny: aggressive violations, ordinary violations, errors and slips. Unconditional and conditional latent growth class analyses showed that the observed heterogeneity in individual trajectories was explained by the presence of multiple homogeneous groups of drivers, each exhibiting specific trajectories of aberrant driver behavior. Initial levels of aberrant driver behavior were important in identifying sub-groups of drivers. All classes showed positive slopes; there was no evidence of a group of drivers whose aberrant behavior decreased over time that might explain the decrease in crash involvement observed over this period. Male gender and younger age predicted membership of trajectories with higher levels of aberrant behavior. These findings highlight the importance of early intervention for improving road safety. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the behavioral underpinnings of the decrease in crash involvement observed in the early months of driving.

Highlights

  • Road traffic crashes are one of the top ten causes of mortality, resulting in almost 3400 deaths per day worldwide (Peden et al, 2004; World Health Organization, 2013)

  • We found that data were missing completely at random (MCAR) with respect to the four dimensions of aberrant driver behavior across the four time-points, as indicated by a non-significant chi-square in Little’s MCAR test: x2 = 1951.21, p =

  • We examined the factorial invariance of the Driver Behavior Questionnaire across the four assessment points

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Summary

Introduction

Road traffic crashes are one of the top ten causes of mortality, resulting in almost 3400 deaths per day worldwide (Peden et al, 2004; World Health Organization, 2013). A body of research on crash risk for novice drivers who begin driving at different ages indicates that age and experience have independent effects, with some evidence that the effect of experience is greater than the effect of age (e.g., McCartt et al, 2009). Identifying the changes in driving behavior that underlie the decrease in crash risk over the first few months of driving is key to efforts to reduce young driver injury and fatality risk. This information could be used as a focus for pre-driving education programs. In theory it would be able to hone Graduated Driving Licensing rules to focus on the key risky driving behaviors that are most important to novice driver safety

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