Novel Source–Sink Model for Space Environment Evolution with Orbit Capacity Assessment

Abstract

The increasing number of anthropogenic space objects (ASOs) in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses a threat to the safety and sustainability of the space environment. Multiple companies are planning to launch large constellations of hundreds to thousands of satellites in the near future, increasing the probability of collisions and debris generation. This paper analyzes the long-term evolution of the LEO ASO population with the goal of estimating LEO orbital capacity. This is carried out by introducing a new probabilistic source–sink model. The developed source–sink model is a multishell multispecies model, which includes different object species, such as active and derelict satellites, and debris. Furthermore, debris are divided into the following two subgroups: trackable and nontrackable debris, the last ones representing a significant hazard for active satellites. In addition, the proposed model accounts for collision events and atmospheric drag effects, which include the influence of solar activity. Indeed, the Jacchia–Bowman 2008 thermospheric density model is exploited. The results prove that considering untracked debris within the model produces more collisions, and therefore a smaller population of active satellites affecting the safety of LEO and its orbital capacity.