Novel scoring system derived from meta-analysis and validated in cohort population for predicting 1-year atrial fibrillation recurrence after cryoballoon catheter ablation: The HeLPS-Cryo score.

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence rates in 1 year after cryoballoon ablation catheter (CBCA) are still high. We purposed to identify strong predictors for AF recurrence after the successful CBCA procedure and develop a new scoring system based only on pre-procedural parameters. In the derivation phase, a systematic review and meta-analysis identified the strong predictors of AF recurrence after the CBCA. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was used to create the new scoring system. The second phase validated the new scoring system in the cohort population. A meta-analysis including 29 cohort studies with 16196 participants confirmed that persistent AF, stroke, heart failure, and left atrial diameter (LAD)>40mm were powerful predictors for AF recurrence after the CBCA procedure. The HeLPS-Cryo (heart failure [1], left atrial dilatation [1], persistent AF [2], and stroke [2]) was developed based on those pre-procedural predictors. It was validated in 140 patients receiving CBCA procedures and revealed excellent predictive performance for 1-year AF recurrence (AUC=0.8877; 95% CI=0.8208 to 0.9546). The HeLPS-Cryo score of ≥3 could predict 1-year AF recurrence with sensitivity and specificity of 78.9% and 87.9%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 66.7%, and the negative predictive value was 93.1%. The HeLPS-Cryo score can help the physician estimate the probability of 1-year AF recurrence after the successful CBCA procedure. Patients with HeLPS-Cryo score<3 are good candidates for the CBCA procedure.