Novel rockburst prediction criterion with enhanced explainability employing CatBoost and nature-inspired metaheuristic technique

Abstract

Rockburst is a major challenge to hard rock engineering at great depth. Accurate and timely assessment of rockburst risk can avoid unnecessary casualties and property losses. Despite the existence of various methods for rockburst assessment, there remains an urgent need for a comprehensive and reliable criterion that is easy to both apply and interpret. Developing a new rockburst criterion based on simple parameters can potentially fill this gap. With its advantages, this criterion can facilitate a more effective and efficient prediction of rockburst potential, thereby contributing significantly to enhancing safety measures. In this paper, combined with the internal and external factors of rockburst, four control variables (i.e., integrity index, stress index, brittleness index, and elastic energy index) were selected to be incorporated into a comprehensive rockburstability index (RBSI). Based on 116 sets of rockburst cases, the rockburst potential was accurately quantified and predicted using the categorical boosting (CatBoost) model and the nature-inspired metaheuristic African vultures optimization algorithm (AVOA). In its performance validation, the criterion achieved the highest accuracy of 95.45%, verifying the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed RBSI criterion. Additionally, an interpretive method was applied to analyze the variable influence on the criterion, facilitating the explanation of predictions and the analysis of the formula’s robustness under different conditions. In general, compared with existing criterion methods involving relevant indicators, the newly proposed RBSI criterion enhances the accuracy of rockburst potential prediction, and it can effectively and swiftly evaluate the preliminary risk of rockburst. Lastly, a graphical user interface was developed to provide a clear visualization of the assessment of rockburst potential.