Novel risk model for one-year mortality and guidance of management strategy in isolated severe secondary tricuspid regurgitation

Abstract

Abstract Background Isolated severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is a challenging valve lesion to manage because of adverse prognosis, and surgery remains controversial especially in secondary etiologies. We aimed to devise a risk model to predict one-year mortality in isolated secondary TR patients, and evaluated whether risk category influenced the association between tricuspid valve surgery and survival. Methods Consecutive patients with isolated severe secondary TR by echocardiography during 2004–2018 were retrospectively studied. A multivariable model was developed for one-year all-cause mortality from two thirds of study patients (randomly-selected derivation cohort), and then assessed in the remaining patients (validation cohort). Associations between tricuspid valve surgery and survival were analyzed overall and in risk categories in multivariable analyses. Results Amongst 8575 isolated TR patients with secondary etiologies, mean age was 71.3±14.5 years and 5153 (60.1%) were female. Tricuspid valve surgery was performed in 487 (5.7%) patients, and was independently associated with improved survival during follow-up with hazards ratio 0.57 (95% confidence interval 0.41–0.81) in multivariable analysis. One-year mortality occurred in 2108 (24.6%) patients, and an additive risk score out of 14 based on independent predictors of one-year mortality is shown in the Table 1. The c-statistic for the derivation cohort was 0.712, and for the validation cohort 0.729. By risk score category, one-year mortality was 5.7% for 0–1 (low), 10.1% for 2–3 (mildly elevated), 24.3% for 4–7 (moderately elevated) and 50.9% for >7 (severely elevated), as shown in Figure 1. Surgery was associated with improved survival in the three higher score categories of isolated TR patients (P<0.001 to P=0.037), but did not improve survival in lower risk patients with scores of 0–1 (P=0.140). Conclusion We devised and validated a novel risk model which moderately discriminated one-year mortality for isolated severe secondary TR. The score may help guide decision-making for management strategy in those with elevated scores, when the under-utilized tricuspid valve surgery is associated with improved survival, and further research is necessary to apply this score for those considering for transcatheter therapies. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): National Heart Foundation of New Zealand Table 1Figure 1