Novel “resect and analysis” approach for T2 colorectal cancer with use of artificial intelligence

Abstract

Because of a lack of reliable preoperative prediction of lymph node involvement in early-stage T2 colorectal cancer (CRC), surgical resection is the current standard treatment. This leads to overtreatment because only 25% of T2 CRC patients turn out to have lymph node metastasis (LNM). We assessed a novel artificial intelligence (AI) system to predict LNM in T2 CRC to ascertain patients who can be safely treated with less-invasive endoscopic resection such as endoscopic full-thickness resection and do not need surgery. We included 511 consecutive patients who had surgical resection with T2 CRC from 2001 to 2016; 411 patients (2001-2014) were used as a training set for the random forest-based AI prediction tool, and 100 patients (2014-2016) were used to validate the AI tool performance. The AI algorithm included 8 clinicopathologic variables (patient age and sex, tumor size and location, lymphatic invasion, vascular invasion, histologic differentiation, and serum carcinoembryonic antigen level) and predicted the likelihood of LNM by receiver-operating characteristics using area under the curve (AUC) estimates. Rates of LNM in the training and validation datasets were 26% (106/411) and 28% (28/100), respectively. The AUC of the AI algorithm for the validation cohort was .93. With 96% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 90%-99%), specificity was 88% (95% confidence interval, 80%-94%). In this case, 64% of patients could avoid surgery, whereas 1.6% of patients with LNM would lose a chance to receive surgery. Our proposed AI prediction model has a potential to reduce unnecessary surgery for patients with T2 CRC with very little risk. (Clinical trial registration number: UMIN 000038257.).