Novel predictors for liver transplantation or death in drug-induced acute liver failure.

Abstract

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a leading cause of acute liver failure (ALF). Predictors for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) or death in drug-induced ALF (DI-ALF) are scarce. In total 33 of 346 patients recruited for our prospective study on potentially hepatotoxic drugs had ALF. DILI diagnosis was based on Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM) score and expert opinion. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, Youden's index and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated to identify the best performing predictive markers and scores for OLT or death. Poor outcome was associated with lower baseline platelet counts and cholinesterase (CHE) levels, higher International Normalized Ratio (INR) levels and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. Yet, AUROC reached a maximum of only 0.71-0.75 for either of those laboratory markers or the MELD score. Notably however, combinations of those scores were highly discriminatory, in particular INR/(CHE*platelet count) and MELD/(CHE*platelet count), showing an AUROC of 0.91, a positive likelihood ratios of 13.78 and a negative likelihood ratios of 0.08. While baseline MELD score, INR, CHE, and platelet counts had limited potential to discriminate between DI-ALF with survival or poor outcome, their combinations were highly associated with OLT or death in patients with DI-ALF.