Novel nomogram and risk stratification for peritoneal recurrence after curative resection in gastric cancer

Abstract

Peritoneal recurrence (PR) in gastric cancer after curative resection has poor prognosis. Therefore, we aimed to construct a nomogram to predict PR, and establish PR score for risk stratification to guide adjuvant chemotherapy. A total of 315 patients with gastric cancer after radical surgery were included, and randomly stratified into training group (n = 221) and validation group (n = 94). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine predictive factors of PR. The nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of PR. We utilized the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor site, N stage, preoperative CEA, and postoperative CA199 were independent predictors of PR. A nomogram was constructed to predict PR based on these factors. The AUC value was 0.755 in the training group and 0.715 in the validation group. The calibration curves showed good agreement between prediction and observation in the training and validation groups. The decision curve analysis displayed a good net benefit of the nomogram. The novel PR score was developed and patients were stratified into the low-, medium-, and high -risk groups. For the high-risk group, postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved patients' overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The establishment of nomogram facilitates the prediction of PR after radical gastrectomy, and a novel PR score may help guide adjuvant chemotherapy for gastric cancer.