Abstract
It is of great significance for the government to control the network public opinion in time and maintain social stability to predict the network public opinion in emergency. This paper proposes a novel improvement method to “S-curve” theory in the context of big data and establishes three novel network public opinion prediction models. These models take into account the proliferation trend of initial and follow-up network public opinion over a long period of time when emergencies are formed and the objective environment suddenly changes, based on the information diffusion model conforming to the traditional “S-curve” theory. The novel improvement and establishment allow our model to have more accurate predictions than other scholars’ models that mainly study the first network public opinion in a shorter period of time. And it is more applicable to real social conditions, in line with the public’s cognition of reality, and provides more reference for the government to take preventive and corresponding positive guiding measures in advance. To better establish the model, we obtained the 24-day Weibo data associated with the incident of “Malaysia Airlines” loss of contact from big data for model establishment, public opinion prediction, and comprehensive evaluation. The result innovatively shows that, in addition to the initial public opinion that is worthy of attention, the follow-up public opinion is also noteworthy and proves that our model has more practical value.
Highlights
Public opinion is the abbreviation of “the situation of public opinion.” It is the summation of the beliefs, attitudes, opinions, and emotions expressed by many people about various phenomena and problems in the society
We obtained 24-day data related to the loss of contact with “Malaysia Airlines” from the official Weibo platform to study the information diffusion mode under the network public opinion
According to the difference between network public opinion diffusion and physical space public opinion diffusion, as well as the occurrence of emergencies, on the basis of the traditional S-curve model, three novel public opinion prediction models are innovatively determining the specific calculation procedures to carry out data fitting analysis and prediction: model 1 based on the “S-curve” theory, model 2 of the improved jump double “S-curve” theory, and model 3 of the improved gradual double “S-curve” theory. e main contribution of this paper is that, through the novel explanation and improvement of the model, it provides a better analysis and prediction method for the information diffusion mode of network public opinion
Summary
Public opinion is the abbreviation of “the situation of public opinion.” It is the summation of the beliefs, attitudes, opinions, and emotions expressed by many people about various phenomena and problems in the society. Based on the traditional information diffusion model that conforms to the “S-curve” theory, this article further discusses the information diffusion model of the initial and subsequent network public opinion by adding factors that occur when the objective environment changes suddenly in cyberspace and emergency formation. E second part mainly explains the selection and processing of data, and this paper mainly analyzes the information diffusion model of network public opinion through the relevant public opinion data of the loss of contact with “Malaysia Airlines.” e third section is the most important part, which introduces the theoretical improvement and the establishment of three types of models on the basis of “S-curve” and makes a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the three models E research content of this paper is mainly divided into three parts. e first part introduces public opinion and Weibo big data platform and determines the research direction and methods by combining the relevant literature of domestic and foreign scholars on public opinion information. e second part mainly explains the selection and processing of data, and this paper mainly analyzes the information diffusion model of network public opinion through the relevant public opinion data of the loss of contact with “Malaysia Airlines.” e third section is the most important part, which introduces the theoretical improvement and the establishment of three types of models on the basis of “S-curve” and makes a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the three models
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