Abstract
Elevated carbon-dioxide concentration [eCO2] is a key climate change factor affecting plant growth and yield. Conventionally, crop modeling work has evaluated the effect of climatic parameters on crop growth, without considering CO2. It is conjectured that a novel multimodal ensemble approach may improve the accuracy of modelled responses to eCO2. To demonstrate the applicability of a multimodel ensemble of crop models to simulation of eCO2, APSIM, CropSyst, DSSAT, EPIC and STICS were calibrated to observed data for crop phenology, biomass and yield. Significant variability in simulated biomass production was shown among the models particularly at dryland sites (44%) compared to the irrigated site (22%). Increased yield was observed for all models with the highest average yield at dryland site by EPIC (49%) and lowest under irrigated conditions (17%) by APSIM and CropSyst. For the ensemble, maximum yield was 45% for the dryland site and a minimum 22% at the irrigated site. We concluded from our study that process-based crop models have variability in the simulation of crop response to [eCO2] with greater difference under water-stressed conditions. We recommend the use of ensembles to improve accuracy in modeled responses to [eCO2].
Highlights
Climate change and food security are two interlinked challenges faced by human beings in the 21st century[1]
Significant difference among models for simulated biomass at ambient carbon dioxide concentration was observed with highest value simulated by CropSyst and lowest by DSSAT
With carbon dioxide concentration at 700 μmol mol−1 the simualted biomass started increasing with the largest response in STICS, followed by CropSyst and APSIM
Summary
Climate change and food security are two interlinked challenges faced by human beings in the 21st century[1]. Different approaches have been used to study the effect of [eCO2] on plants growth, development and yield These include FACE experiments[9,12,21], open top chamber (OTC)[22,23,24], temperature gradient tunnel (TGT)[25] and crop modeling. Increased photosynthesis (10–45%) in C3 crops with increased canopy temperature, yield, biomass and water use efficiency and decreased stomatal conductance and evapotranspiration have been reported under FACE experiments[9]. The main C3 cereal crop, showed reduced stomatal conductance and evapotranspiration with increased photosynthesis and canopy temperature under [eCO2]. This resulted in higher biomass and yield in wheat even under water stress conditions. Some of the earlier work studied the interaction of increased temperature and CO253–55
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