Abstract

Early discrimination and prediction of cognitive decline are crucial for the study of neurodegenerative mechanisms and interventions to promote cognitive resiliency. Our research is based on resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) and the current dataset includes 137 consensus-diagnosed, community-dwelling Black Americans (ages 60-90 years, 84 healthy controls [HC]; 53 mild cognitive impairment [MCI]) recruited through Wayne State University and Michigan Alzheimer's Disease Research Center. We conducted multiscale analysis on time-varying brain functional connectivity and developed an innovative soft discrimination model in which each decision on HC or MCI also comes with a connectivity-based score. The leave-one-out cross-validation accuracy is 91.97% and 3-fold accuracy is 91.17%. The 9 to 18 months' progression trend prediction accuracy over an availability-limited subset sample is 84.61%. The EEG-based soft discrimination model demonstrates high sensitivity and reliability for MCI detection and shows promising capability in proactive prediction of people at risk of MCI before clinical symptoms may occur.

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