Abstract
BackgroundExperiments involving mosquito mark-release-recapture (MRR) design are helpful to determine abundance, survival and even recruitment of mosquito populations in the field. Obstacles in mosquito MRR protocols include marking limitations due to small individual size, short lifespan, low efficiency in capturing devices such as traps, and individual removal upon capture. These limitations usually make MRR analysis restricted to only abundance estimation or a combination of abundance and survivorship, and often generate a great degree of uncertainty about the estimations.Methodology/Principal findingsWe present a set of Bayesian biodemographic models designed to fit data from most common mosquito recapture experiments. Using both field data and simulations, we consider model features such as capture efficiency, survival rates, removal of individuals due to capturing, and collection of pupae. These models permit estimation of abundance, survivorship of both marked and unmarked mosquitoes, if different, and recruitment rate. We analyze the accuracy of estimates by varying the number of released individuals, abundance, survivorship, and capture efficiency in multiple simulations. These methods can stand capture efficiencies as low as usually reported but their accuracy depends on the number of released mosquitoes, abundance and survivorship. We also show that gathering pupal counts allows estimating differences in survivorship between released mosquitoes and the unmarked population.Conclusion/SignificanceThese models are important both to reduce uncertainty in evaluating MMR experiments and also to help planning future MRR studies.
Highlights
Mark-release-recapture (MRR) methods applied to study mosquito populations permit analysis of vector survival, dispersal, and abundance in natural environment
Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria impose a global burden with recurrent outbreaks
Probability of daily survival from posterior distributions obtained from analyses of models MB, MRSU, and MRP were very similar (Fig 1B)
Summary
Mark-release-recapture (MRR) methods applied to study mosquito populations permit analysis of vector survival, dispersal, and abundance in natural environment. Reliable vectorial capacity assessment requires accurate estimations of mosquito density (mosquitoes/human) and survivorship (daily survival probability) These estimates typically help to improve vector control policies and practices in endemic regions and might lead to mitigation of disease transmission [3]. For example: (a) individual mosquitoes are released and typically not recaptured multiple times because once collected at traps they do not survive for new releases, (b) recapture rates are low, often ranging from 5–10% [5], (c) most of the experimental designs, with notable exceptions [6], consider groups of marked individuals as cohorts due to small mosquito body size and consequent difficulty of individual marking methods and because a high number of mosquitoes are released from a few selected points, and (d) average lifespan under natural conditions is short These limitations restrict models which consider individual markers and multiple recaptures. These limitations usually make MRR analysis restricted to only abundance estimation or a combination of abundance and survivorship, and often generate a great degree of uncertainty about the estimations
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
