Novel heat flux expansion formula for spacecraft solar radiation uncertainty analysis

Abstract

To address the challenges of spacecraft design involving over and under-designing, uncertainty thermal analysis offers a practical solution. This method typically requires extensive simulations under varying conditions, leading to high computational costs, primarily due to the complex ray tracing calculations for solar radiation external heat flux in different scenarios. This study introduces an solar radiation external heat flux expansion (EHFE) formula that simplifies these calculations. By applying ray tracing only once and using matrix operation for other conditions, it significantly reduces the need for complex calculations. Additionally, this approach effectively eliminates errors caused by the cut-off factor. An example with a specific spacecraft demonstrates that this new method, while enhancing computational efficiency, maintains the accuracy of traditional uncertainty-based calculations for solar radiation external heat flux.