Abstract
We propose an extrapolation method utilizing energy variance in the Monte Carlo shell model in order to estimate the energy eigenvalue and observables accurately. We derive a formula for the energy variance with deformed Slater determinants, which enables us to calculate the energy variance efficiently. The feasibility of the method is demonstrated for the full $pf$-shell calculation of $^{56}$Ni, and the applicability of the method to a system beyond current limit of exact diagonalization is shown for the $pf$+$g_{9/2}$-shell calculation of $^{64}$Ge.
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