Novel Detection and Progression Markers for Diabetes Based on Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data Dynamics.

Abstract

Develop a diabetes diagnostic tool based on two markers of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) dynamics: CGM entropy rate (ER) and Poincaré plot (PP) ellipse area (S). 5,754 daily CGM profiles from 843 individuals with type 1, type 2 diabetes, or healthy individuals with or without islet autoantibody status were used to compute two individual dynamic markers: ER (in bits per transition; BPT) of daily probability matrices describing CGM transitions between eight glycemic states, and the area S (mg2/dL2) of individual CGM PP ellipses using standard PP descriptors. The Youden's index was used to determine "optimal" cut-points for ER and S for health vs. diabetes (case 1); type 1 vs. type 2 (case 2); and low vs. high type 1 immunological risk (case 3). The markers' discriminative power was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC). Optimal cut-off points were determined for ER and S for each of the three cases. ER and S discriminated case 1 with AUC = 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) and AUC = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99-1.00), respectively, (cut-offs ERcase1 = 0.76 BPT, Scase1 = 1993.91 mg2/dL2), case 2 with AUC = 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84) and AUC = 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81), respectively (ERcase2 = 1.00 BPT, Scase2 = 5112.98 mg2/dL2), and case 3 with AUC = 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84) and AUC = 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.81), respectively (ERcase3 = 0.52 BPT, Scase3 = 923.65 mg2/dL2). CGM dynamics markers can be an alternative to fasting plasma glucose or glucose tolerance testing and identifying individuals at higher immunological risk of progressing to type 1 diabetes.