Nothing changed after Rome: Continuity in state support for the International Criminal Court

Abstract

Despite significant structural and domestic changes, states’ attitudes toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) have not fundamentally changed since 1998. In her 2021 article, García Iommi identified four levels of support for the adoption of the Rome Statute—Entrepreneurs, Supporters, Accepting States, and Detractors—and argued that a combination of identity and interests explained what category states fell into. Building on this argument, and using a combination of statistical methods and case studies, this article establishes that the aforementioned categories of support constitute a good predictor of support for the ICC today and explains that the reason is that the underlying conditions have not changed. Accordingly, it is unsurprising that countries that endorsed the adoption of the Rome Statute but never championed it (Accepting States) display lower levels of support for the Court than Entrepreneurs and Supporters. This suggests that the difficulties the ICC has faced in Africa, where almost a third of Accepting States are located, could also take place in other regions with Accepting States.