Abstract
Abstract. A correlation between solar activity and normalized occurrence rate of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) has been found. As a proxy for solar activity, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux has been used. In order to find the correlation, we derived a normalized occurrence rate of major sudden stratospheric warmings (MSSWs) based on both the ERA-40/ERA-Interim dataset and NCEP data. Based on this distribution, we calculated the correlation coefficient, which amounts to 0.63, with a significance of 90.68 %, for ERA-40/ERA-Interim, and 0.55 for the NCEP–NCAR-I reanalysis, with a significance of 83.80 %. Additionally, we calculate correlation coefficients for Lyman-alpha flux and sunspot numbers with the analogous method for the same period.
Highlights
In the middle of the last century, Scherhag (1952) and Scrase (1953) independently found an incident of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)
We investigate the statistical connection between major sudden stratospheric warmings (MSSWs) and solar activity
We investigated the statistical relationship between solar activity and the occurrence rate of major sudden stratospheric warmings (MSSWs)
Summary
In the middle of the last century, Scherhag (1952) and Scrase (1953) independently found an incident of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). The SSW effect is manifested in the sudden and short (several days) increase in temperature (up to 60 K) in the stratosphere and joint cooling in the mesosphere at high and middle latitudes during winter. The theoretical explanation was proposed by Dickinson (1968a, b, 1969a, b) and consists of an interaction of PWs which penetrate into the winter middle atmosphere and affect general mean circulation when they dissipate. Steady dissipating waves can weaken the zonal mean flow and maintain the winter stratosphere above radiative equilibrium temperatures (Dickinson, 1969b). This theory was confirmed by model simulations (Matsuno, 1970, 1971). Based on model simulations, Peters (1985a, b) found that SSW-like effects may occur due to non-linear wave–wave interactions. Since SSWs have been observed and modelled in numerous works
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