Notes on contents

Abstract

This paper describes an individual-based model of sympatric populations of brown and rainbow trout in a stream habitat. The model provides a tool for projecting flow and temperature effects on trout populations by linking the hydraulic component of the instream flow incremental methodology/physical habitat simulation system (IFIM/PHABSIM) to an individual-based population model. PHABSIM simulates the spatial distribution of depth and velocity at different flows, and indirectly, the availability of spawning habitat, cover and feeding station. The individual-based model simulates reproduction, growth and mortality of individual trout as a function of flow and temperature. Population dynamics arise from the survival and reproduction of individual trout. The spatially explicit nature of the model permits evaluation of behavioral responses used by fish to changes in physical habitat. The model has been calibrated to a stream segment in the North Fork Middle Fork Tule River, California. Selected parameters were adjusted to calibrate the model for length and abundance (including production of a new year class) at the end of 1-year simulations for each of 9 years. Predicted and observed lengths were in good agreement, although neither varied appreciably among years. Predicted and observed abundances were not in as good agreement, and differed considerably for some years. These differences reflect a combination of uncertainties in the field data and uncertainties in the model structure and parameter values. Fifty-year simulations indicated that model projections of length and abundance were stationary, although abundance values fluctuated considerably. Seven advantages for using simulation models of this type are emphasized. How to most effectively interpret results from such simulation models as part of instream flow environmental assessments remains a challenge. Variability and uncertainty in both field data and replicate model simulations are realities that have implications for scientists, resource managers, and regulators in projecting growth and abundance responses of fish populations to alternative flow or temperature regimes.