Not so fast! Cash transfers can increase child labor: Evidence for Bolivia

Abstract

Using data for Bolivia we study how a national-level unconditional cash transfer programs can causally affect child labor. We estimate intent-to-treat effects under a fuzzy regression discontinuity approach by taking advantage of the fact that the probability of receiving the pension changes discontinuously at the eligibility age. We also estimate average treatment effects on the treated by using eligibility as an instrumental variable for receipt. We find substantial increases in the probability that boys in rural areas engage in child labor.