(Not)real value: The impact of the reliability of financial statements on the value of the company

Abstract

The article presents methodological tools for assessing the value of the company, taking into account the fact of distortion of the accounting (financial) statements of the company. The reliability of the reporting of companies of the type of economic activity “Construction” is determined - one of the most important industries for the development of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) in the post-pandemic reality. The cost of construction companies of the SFD is estimated, the existence of a relationship between the manipulation of reporting and the value of the company is revealed. The authors propose an algorithm for assessing the value of the company, taking into account the fact of manipulation of reporting data. The steps of the algorithm of actions involve building a probit regression on an array of reporting data of companies with an interesting type of economic activity, determining the probability of manipulating reporting data based on the regression obtained, assessing the real value of the company taking into account the facts of manipulation. The proposed methodology for assessing the value of a company, taking into account manipulation, can be used to make management and investment decisions by external and internal stakeholders, including banks, credit organizations, suppliers, owners of construction companies, and other interested parties.