Abstract
Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.
Highlights
It has been suggested that some geographic areas are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and endemic species because they have had little climate change over geological timescales
This long-term stability has led to high numbers of species that are unique to these “climate refugia”
On average, warming in the Myers (+0.91 ± 0.07 ◦C) and Global 200” (G200) freshwater (+0.89 ± 0.07 ◦C) rich spots was less than the global average increase (+1.08 ◦C), whereas the G200 terrestrial rich spots were on par (+1.04 ± 0.1 ◦C)
Summary
It has been suggested that some geographic areas are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and endemic species because they have had little climate change over geological timescales. If the climate refugia hypothesis is true, rich spots may continue to provide safe harbours (refugia) for species under anthropogenic climate change. Conserving these areas would protect species against current human impacts, such as hunting, fishing, and habitat loss (Halpern et al, 2015; Díaz et al, 2019; Tedesco et al, 2013), and limit the effects of climate change on global biodiversity (García Molinos et al, 2016). The lower thermal safety margins of marine ectotherm species renders them more vulnerable to climate change than terrestrial ectotherms (Pinsky et al, 2019)
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