NORWEGIAN SALMONID FARMING AND GLOBAL WARMING: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

Abstract

Temperature increases in Norwegian waters are likely to influence productivity for salmonid aquaculture. As sites are experiencing different temperature regimes, the impact on productivity will vary. The spatial distribution of Norwegian salmon farming depends on both institutional and physical conditions. At present, the general location of farms is restricted by the authorities, but in the case of large productivity differences, this regime may be liberalized. This study analyzes the impact of increased temperature on the spatial distribution of production and employment. We vary temperature and management regime in four scenarios and a 30 year time span. Total production is based on linear demand growth, serving as a restriction in the subsequent model. Productivity per county is determined in a temperature-driven model, and a separate model predicts the relocation of licenses between counties. An input–output model captures the direct and indirect effects of aquaculture production. Our findings indicate substantially differing effects on the spatial distribution of production and hence value added and employment. In the baseline scenario, production growth is relatively equal among the northern, middle and southern parts of Norway. Increased temperature shifts production considerably north, both in the case of stable and liberalized management.