Abstract
As the literature on environmental security has evolved and widened, knowledge of the full range of potential consequences of environmental change for different societies remains scattered. This article contributes to a more comprehensive approach to the implications of environmental change by providing a three-level framework of the security impacts. In particular, it will address gaps in knowledge by pointing out the relevance of geopolitical and structural factors behind environmental security impacts. The article will focus on the cases of two countries, Finland and Sweden—both seen as stable, high-income democracies that are well equipped to adapt to climate risks. Yet even under these conditions, preparedness to threat-prevention will not follow without a recognition of the full range of risks, including ones that are linked to socio-economic and geopolitical factors. On the basis of the Finnish and Swedish cases, the article proposes an analytical framework of three categories of environmental security impacts: local, geopolitical and structural.
Highlights
During recent years, the perceived magnitude and severity of different kinds of environmental threats have been on the rise
The aim is to formulate a comprehensive picture of the kinds of impacts that Finland and Sweden are facing, and to consider the strategic relevance given at state-level to the security impacts of environmental change
It confirms the expectation that while the level of recognition is good on local impacts and emerging on geopolitical impacts, structural impacts are to a large extent neglected in research and risk assessments
Summary
The perceived magnitude and severity of different kinds of environmental threats have been on the rise. Analyses tend to focus on regions where environmental impacts are manifest concretely These tend to be regions where changes are acutely felt due to their severity, the fragility of local communities or a combination of both [3]. Studies have examined direct security links caused by the interactions between the environment, access to natural resources and threatened livelihoods [8] These are especially apparent in post-conflict or high conflict risk areas [9,10]. Food production and transportation should already be adjusting to a changing environment while being restructured to be sustainable in the long run [14,15,16] These impacts concern industrialized and developing countries alike and need to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis but in a global context
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