Northern territories and Japan-Russia Relations: Will the Knot ever Untie?

Abstract

The onset of a new administration in September 2009 headed by Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, put an end to the almost uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since the end of the Second World War. The new administration brought also a promise of new diplomatic orientations. Japan-Russia relations, as ever before, blocked by the festering problem of the “Northern Territories”, as Japan calls the four southernmost Kurile Islands belonging to the Russian Federation and which she claims as her own, saw for many new and positive prospects. However, the “diplomatic revolution” which many expected, ended miserably not even a year later, with Hatoyama´s resignation. No progress had been achieved in bilateral relations. His successor, Prime Minister Naoto Kan, had to face an assertive Russia which symbolized her Asian strategy with the landmark visit by President Medvedev in November 2010 to the Island of Kunashiri and who has since then taken a course of economic development and military reinforcement of the Kurile Islands. This reorientation and reaffirmation of Russia´s position as legitimate owner of the “Northern Territories” occurred while Japan tried to mend relations with the US, saw her relations with China sour and had to cope with the devastating consequences of the 11 March 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake. Under current Prime Minister Yoshiko Noda, Japan and Russia have to mend the worst bilateral relations since many years. While bilateral cooperation remains stuck, both countries do find complementarity in the energy field. It remains to be seen, whether this increasing cooperation will in the future spill over into other realms of Japan-Russia relations.