Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones during the quasi-El Niño of late 2014

Abstract

During the second half of 2014, the tropical Pacific was in a state marginally consistent with El Nino. While oceanic indicators were indicative of a weak El Nino event, a number of atmospheric indicators were not, and a number of forecast centers did not declare an El Nino. Nonetheless, the most active tropical cyclone basins of the northern hemisphere—those of the North Atlantic and Pacific—showed tropical cyclone statistics that in some respects were consistent with El Nino. In particular, the numbers of relatively intense storms in the four basins considered—major hurricanes in the Eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, super typhoons in the Western North Pacific, and hurricanes in the Central North Pacific—formed a pattern strongly consistent with El Nino.