Abstract
Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (“CMIP5”) climate models over the duration of the satellite’s records, i.e., 1967–2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate analyses were conducted for the annual averages and for each of the seasons (winter, spring, summer, and autumn/fall). A longer record (1922–2018) for the spring season which combines ground-based measurements with satellite measurements was also compared to the model outputs. The climate models were found to poorly explain the observed trends. While the models suggest snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons, only spring and summer exhibited a long-term decrease, and the pattern of the observed decreases for these seasons was quite different from the modelled predictions. Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant. Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed.
Highlights
Snow cover represents one of the main components of the cryosphere, along with sea ice [1], permafrost [2], and the various ice sheets and glaciers [3,4]
The models theruns, observed values for allthe four50-year annual average (e) to the equivalent values fortended each to of underestimate the 196 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) averaged over seasons, and a wide range existed for all seasons
The observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent since 1967 were compared to the changes predicted by the CMIP5 climate models
Summary
Snow cover represents one of the main components of the cryosphere, along with sea ice [1], permafrost [2], and the various ice sheets and glaciers [3,4]. Seasonal snow cover represents a major component of the hydrological cycle in mid- and high-latitudes [5]. Snow cover supports a large winter outdoor recreation industry, while snowmelt is an important source of water for many societies. Sturm et al [6] estimate that the financial value of snow to human society is of the order of trillions of dollars. Boelman et al [7] further stress that understanding changes and trends in snow cover is important for the study of wildlife communities of ecosystems that experience seasonal snow.
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