North Korean Leadership Dynamics and Decision-making under Kim Jong-un: A Second Year Assessment

Abstract

Abstract : Kim Jong-il s death in December 2011 brought about the hereditary transition of power to a third generation. Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il s youngest son, assumed the mantle of Supreme Leader. In a little over a year, he had acquired all of the titles of power, including Supreme Commander, First Secretary of the Korean Workers Party, and First Chairman of the National Defense Commission. In December 2013, Kim Jong-un violently purged his uncle, Jang Song-taek, in a move that seemingly has accelerated his power consolidation process. He is 30 (or 31) years old.1 This paper is an update of an earlier CNA monograph published in September 2013 that examined the leadership and decision-making dynamics under Kim Jong-un. The author felt that Jang Song-taek s purge and the ramifications it has for the North Korean political structure are so profound that an update was warranted. The September 2013 monograph argued that Kim Jong-un, while the ultimate decision-maker and sole source of legitimacy for the regime, had yet to fully consolidate his power. While he may have been invested with inherent legitimacy by virtue of his position as Supreme Leader, he still needed to grow into the position and learn how to effectively wield power. This was a process of demonstrating capability and relationship building that could take one to two more years. In fact, Kim Jong-un, the paper argued, was currently involved in a three-phase process of consolidation.