North Korea under Kim chong-Il

Abstract

Winston Churchill once described the Soviet Union as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." But in the years since Stalin's demise, the Soviet Union has become much less mysterious: foreigners are allowed to enter the country with relative ease, and the Western press is able to report openly from there on Soviet affairs; a considerable number of Soviet citizens have been permitted to emigrate. Churchill's remark can be applied with equal accuracy to mainland China, but since the early 1970's, China has been an active member of the international community. Policy changes in favor of moderation, internal and external, became possible after the deaths of the dictators, Stalin and Mao Zedung, who wielded enormous personal power over their Communist parties and state institutions. Could a similar situation arise in North Korea with the death of President Kim II-sung, who is now seventy years old? If so, can we look forward to more peaceful relations between North and South Korea, as we see, for instance, in the case of the two Germanys? A change in North Korea's "enigmatic" nature in the coming decade would have a great impact on the security interests not only of South Korea but also of the major powers concerned, including the United States. North Korea faces several problems. First, it must carry out the hereditary succession of power from Kim II-sung to his son, Kim Chong-il. This has been a gradual and laborious process. Secondly, North Korea must deal with its economic problems. Many believe it is becoming more difficult for them to maintain the highly centralized command system that has existed for thirty-seven years without any fundamental reform. Sooner or later North Korea must decide whether to relax and decentralize economic control so as to overcome the economic stagnation, in which case it will risk losing political control. The third major problem centers on North Korea's relationship with the outside world, including South Korea. For ten years now there have been cautious attempts to open North Korean society to a very limited extent, in line with political demands. Is North Korea going to open up on a larger scale, following the examples set by the USSR and China or will North Korea remain the "hermit kingdom" it has been in the past? The analysis that follows examines some of these issues and options.