North Caucasus will remain under Moscow's control

Abstract

Significance Russia has managed to ensure relative order and stability in the region in recent years, with transfers from the federal budget helping tame local opposition groups that previously resisted federal rule. Maintaining peace in what has historically been a volatile region has enabled the Russian military to focus on the fighting in Ukraine, where young males from the North Caucasus have played an important role. Impacts Turkey and Iran might replicate some of the Russian policies successfully used to keep the North Caucasus in peace. North Caucasian fighters in Turkey and Ukraine will attempt to destabilise the region by appealing to ethnic and religious solidarity. Moscow's strength in the North Caucasus is likely to deter Azerbaijan from exploiting the presence of ethnic Azeris in the Derbent region.