North Atlantic Oscillation as a Cause of the Hydrological Changes in the Mediterranean (Júcar River, Spain)

Abstract

Significant changes in the Jucar River Basin District’s hydrology in the Mediterranean side of Spain, have been observed during last decades. A statistical change-point in the year 1980 was detected in the basins’ hydrological series in the main upper river, Jucar and Turia basins. In the study scope are, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is linked with the winter precipitations in the Upper Basins, which are here responsible for the major part of streamflow. So changes in the rainfall has an important effect in the natural river flows. The statistical analysis detected a change at NAO’s seasonal pattern, what means a considerable reduction of winter rainfalls in the Upper River basins located in the inland zone which is simultaneously the water collection and reservoirs area (a − 40% of water resources availability since 1980). Hydro-meteorological data and a Water Balance Model, Patrical, have been used to assess these water resources’ reduction. Results points out to the change in the Basin’s precipitation pattern in the inland areas (upper basins), associated to Atlantic weather patterns, as the main cause, while it has not been detected in the coastal areas. All these changes implies water stress for water resources planning, management and allocation, where more than 5.2 million people and irrigation of 390,000 ha are served, joint to the time variability, an important territorial imbalance exists between resources and demands. Thus, in the main upper basins, with the biggest streamflow’s reductions, locate the largest reservoirs in terms of water resources collection and reserves.