Abstract
Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.
Highlights
Norovirus is an important cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide, and is associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs
We examine the current status of mathematical modelling in norovirus transmission with particular focus on estimates of the reproduction number
English language papers were included in the literature review, with a focus on mathematical modelling studies of norovirus transmission and estimation of key quantities such as reproduction numbers
Summary
Norovirus is an important cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide, and is associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. The majority of non-bacterial outbreaks, and an estimated 18% of all endemic AGE, are caused by norovirus [1, 3,4,5]. Norovirus is estimated to cost healthcare services and patients 81 million a year in the UK alone [8, 9]. Noroviruses are a genus within the Caliciviridae family which is divided into five genogroups (GI– GV) [10,11,12]. GII is the most prevalent genogroup worldwide, accounting for over 81% of all outbreaks in the USA reported to Calicinet in 2017 [13]
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