Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents an assessment of normalised flood losses in Europe for the period 1970–2006. Normalisation provides an estimate of the losses that would occur if the floods from the past take place under current societal conditions. Economic losses from floods are the result of both societal and climatological factors. Failing to adjust for time-variant socio-economic factors produces loss amounts that are not directly comparable over time, but rather show an ever-growing trend for purely socio-economic reasons. This study has used available information on flood losses from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Natural Hazards Assessment Network (NATHAN). Following the conceptual approach of previous studies, we normalised flood losses by considering the effects of changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level. Furthermore, we removed inter-country price differences by adjusting the losses for purchasing power parities (PPP). We assessed normalised flood losses in 31 European countries. These include the member states of the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Results show no detectable sign of human-induced climate change in normalised flood losses in Europe. The observed increase in the original flood losses is mostly driven by societal factors.
Highlights
Flood disasters are the result of both societal and climatological factors, several other drivers than climate must be considered for the assessment of flood-damage trends
To minimize the effect of better accounting of flood losses in recent decades this study considers only major floods, i.e. those with losses larger than 1000 million in 2006 US$ normalised values
This study showed that there is no evidence of a clear positive trend in normalised flood losses in Europe
Summary
Flood disasters are the result of both societal and climatological factors, several other drivers than climate must be considered for the assessment of flood-damage trends. There is evidence that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the increasing losses from natural disasters to date (Hoppe and Pielke Jr., 2006; Schiermeier, 2006). We assessed flood disaster economic losses in 31 European countries. These include the member states of the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The paper addresses the question of what the magnitude of economic flood losses over time in Europe would be if the floods from the past would take place under current societal conditions
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