No-policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992

Abstract

Abstract A new set of no-policy global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios was developed using the atmospheric stabilization framework, the same modeling tool that was used to generate the IS92 emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised assumptions about population and economic growth, combined with updated information on changes in renewable energy supply, the efficiency of energy generation and other factors resulted in changes in GHG emission profiles over the next century, which led to an increase in the estimated global average temperature change as compared to the IS92 scenarios. Model results indicate that the largest increase in emissions, which led to a temperature increase of about 3.4°C by 2100 (relative to 1990), can be expected when a rapid increase in the GNP per capita levels of the non-OECD countries is combined with a low availability of solar/wind and biomass energy resources and slow energy efficiency improvements. The smallest increase in emissions and temperature by 2100 (about 2.5°C) occurred when a relatively slow increase in the GNP per capita in the non-OECD countries was combined with a high availability of renewable energy resources and rapid energy efficiency improvements.