Non-Synchronous Response Of Rabots Glaciar and Storglaciaren To Recent Climatic Change

Abstract

Rabots glaciär and Storglaciären are small valley glaciers located in the Kebnekaise massif of northern Sweden. Rabots glaciär flows west from the summit of Kebnekaise (2114 m) and Storglaciären flows east; thus regional climate affecting the glaciers is the same. The glaciers are of comparable size and geometry, although differences exist in the variation of ice thickness and the subglacial bedrock topography within the respective basins. The thickness of Rabots glaciär appears to be relatively uniform over much of its length and its bed smooth. The bed over which Storglaciären flows is characterized by a “riegel and basin” topography and ice thicknesses vary accordingly. Advance and retreat of the glaciers during the last 100 years has been documented by historical records and photographs, measurements of ice retreats, and detailed glacial and geological studies. Both advanced to their maximum 20th century extents around 1916. In their subsequent retreat, Rabots glaciär has lagged behind Storglaciären by 10 years. Mass-balance studies for the years 1981–87 suggest that while the “local” climate for each glacier is slightly different (in terms of the magnitude of acumulation and ablation), variations in local climate are synchronous. Non-synchronous response of the glaciers is therefore attributed to differences in glacier dynamics, which are quite apparent when velocity profiles are compared. Ice velocities on Rabots glaciär vary little from an average of −7.5 m/yr, resulting in a longitudinal strain rate, r, of about 6 × 10−3yr −1. In contrast, values for r on Storglaciären are as high as 2.5 × 10−2 yr−1 owing to greater ice velocities and variation in ice velocity. Since the response time of a glacier is proportional to 1/r, the lower strain rates found on Rabots glaciär probably account for its more sluggish retreat. A simple, non-diffusive, kinematic wave model is used to analyze the response of the glaciers to a step-like perturbation in mass balance. This model predicts that the response time of Storglaciären is on the order of 30 years and that a new steady-state profile would be attained in about 50 years. The predicted response time of Rabots glaciär is about 75 years, its new steady-state profile being reached after more than 100 years. More accurate analyses of each glacier's response to climatic change use a time-dependent numerical model which includes the effects of diffusion. The climatic forcing in these modelling efforts is represented by the changes in mass balance resulting from changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). ELAs can be correlated to regional meteorological variables which in turn are used to create a “synthetic” record of ELA variations where necessary. Therefore climatic oscillations since the turn of the century can be simulated by the appropriate changes in ELA. Using synchronous variations of ELAs and their 1916 profiles as datum states, the modeled behavior of Rabots glaciär and Storglaciären shows that: (a) the rates of ice retreat for each glacier are in reasonable agreement with those observed; and (b) Rabots glaciär took slightly longer than Storglaciären to react to the slight warming that occurred shortly after their 1916 advance.