Non-stationary Modeling of Trends in Extreme Water Level Changes Along the Baltic Sea Coast

Abstract

ABSTRACT Kudryavtseva, N.; Pindsoo, K., and Soomere, T., 2018. Application of Non-stationary Extreme Value Modeling to Account for Trends in Extreme Water Level Changes Along the Baltic Sea Coast. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 586–590. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The classic approach to extreme water levels and their return periods relies on the choice of a convenient extreme value distribution and the subsequent evaluation of its parameters. However, there is increasing evidence that these parameters vary with time owing to climate change. A novel non-stationary modeling of parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is implemented based on the block maximum approach, looking for linear trends in the location parameter of the GEV distribution. The analysis is performed for simulated NEMO-Nordic water level data ...