Nonparametric Forecasting for Biochar Utilization in Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone in China

Meng-Shiuh Chang,Chih-Chun Kung

doi:10.3390/su6010267

Abstract

Agriculture is the least profitable industry in China. However, even with large financial subsidies from the government, farmers’ living standards have had no significant impact so far due to the historical, geographical, climatic factors. The study examines and quantifies the net economic and environmental benefits by utilizing biochar as a soil amendment in eleven counties in the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone. A nonparametric kernel regression model is employed to estimate the relation between the scaled environmental and economic factors, which are determined as regression variables. In addition, the partial linear and single index regression models are used for comparison. In terms of evaluations of mean squared errors, the kernel estimator, exceeding the other estimators, is employed to forecast benefits of using biochar under various scenarios. The results indicate that biochar utilization can potentially increase farmers’ income if rice is planted and the net economic benefits can be achieved up to ¥114,900. The net economic benefits are higher when the pyrolysis plant is built in the south of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone than when it is built in the north as the southern land is relatively barren, and biochar can save more costs on irrigation and fertilizer use.

Highlights

Poyang Lake is one of the largest wetlands in China and is an important water source providing residential and industrial water use for more than 10 million people
As the most important benefits of producing bioenergy in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone are to decrease watershed pollution (B1) and to enhance farmers’ revenues (B2), this study considers the sum of B1 and B2, the benefits that farmers can eventually obtain related to the biochar used, as the dependent variable due to their values are estimated in output
As the rice is the most widely cultivated crop in the research zone, the experiment is concerned with forecasts of net additional incomes (NAI) of rice in all scenarios, where possible changes could occur to benefits and costs of using bioenergy

Summary

Introduction

Poyang Lake is one of the largest wetlands in China and is an important water source providing residential and industrial water use for more than 10 million people. The Chinese government realized the importance of the lake and, in December 2009, the State Council gave an official statement that supported the establishment of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone. This is the first national development program in the history of the Jiangxi Province, focusing on sustainable environmental, social, and economic development for both current and future generations. Biochar/pyrolysis is an alternative way of bioenergy production in Poyang Lake Eco-Economic. Transportation and plant construction may be obstacles for this new technology as they involve large initial investments.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion