Nonparametric decomposition of quasi-periodic time series for change-point detection

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the sequential online change-point detection problem for a dynamical system driven by a quasiperiodic stochastic process. We propose a multicomponent time series model and an effective online decomposition algorithm to approximate the components of the models. Assuming the stationarity of the obtained components, we approach the change-point detection problem on a per-component basis and propose two online change-point detection schemes corresponding to two real-world scenarios. Experimental results for decomposition and detection algorithms for synthesized and real-world datasets are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of our change-point detection framework.